Qualification · Qualification 59
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
231.65 – 113.38
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
321 – 76
Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 57.64Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 34.59Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 139.42Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±16.7
2501Bionic Polars
Provisional
Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 20.32Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 24.02Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 69.04Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3130, 5690, 3100
82
/ 100 compatProjected
231.7 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 3130, 5690, 3100
Auto
41.8 18%
Teleop
124.2 54%
Endgame
63.4 28%
Strengths
- · 3100 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 2501, 3630, 7797
59
/ 100 compatProjected
113.4 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 2501, 3630, 7797
Auto
35.4 34%
Teleop
31.2 30%
Endgame
38.6 37%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score231.7pts
Blue projected score113.4pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 25%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 118.3
- Score range
- 93–252
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
423.1Season APEX271.4
41.8Auto35.4
124.2Teleop31.2
63.4Endgame38.6
32Consistency89
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 23 |
| teleop | 207 | 22 |
| endgame | 63 | 16 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 321 | 76 |
Result
Final score
321 – 76
Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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