Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.85 – 78.78

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.7 ±12.4

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 6.14Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 20.55Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 53.16Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.1 ±18.8

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 18.98Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 36.9Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 22.9Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4693, 6147, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 6147, 2846

Auto

28.6 35%

Teleop

52.5 64%

Endgame

0.5 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6044, 2823, 4656

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6044, 2823, 4656

Auto

21.2 29%

Teleop

34.2 47%

Endgame

17.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.9pts

Blue projected score78.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.1
Score range: 59–100
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.7Season APEX214.1

28.6Auto21.2

52.5Teleop34.2

0.5Endgame17.6

130Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	11
teleop	68	49
endgame	28	42
foul	0	0
total	144	102

Result

Final score

144 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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