Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.4 – 57.43

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.8 ±12.8

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 30.64Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 36.39Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 84.37Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±14.5

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 47.57Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 2.27Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 7.59Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2181, 3042, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2181, 3042, 2847

Auto

17.7 12%

Teleop

88.8 60%

Endgame

41.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2861, 4166, 4536

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 4166, 4536

Auto

10.9 26%

Teleop

24.9 59%

Endgame

6.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.4pts

Blue projected score57.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94
Score range: 37–171
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.8Season APEX228.8

17.7Auto10.9

88.8Teleop24.9

41Endgame6.5

58Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	48	58
endgame	15	46
foul	0	0
total	77	115

Result

Final score

77 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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