Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.79 – 130.22

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±11.7

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 10.12Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 31.48Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 65.19Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±14.5

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 21.32Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 79.96Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 28.94Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8422, 3082, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8422, 3082, 3297

Auto

20.0 20%

Teleop

61.1 61%

Endgame

19.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3883, 2503, 5658

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 2503, 5658

Auto

24.2 19%

Teleop

62.5 50%

Endgame

37.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.8pts

Blue projected score130.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 87–150
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.9Season APEX295.2

20Auto24.2

61.1Teleop62.5

19Endgame37.6

86Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	86	54
endgame	74	55
foul	5	0
total	192	138

Result

Final score

192 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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