Qualification · Qualification 54
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
101.85 – 49.04
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
108 – 99
Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±17
Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 21.88Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
2501Bionic Polars
Provisional
Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 23.21Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 56.76Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±16.2
Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 7.81Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 42.1Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 43.1Event APEX -0.87Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4511, 2501, 3130
62
/ 100 compatProjected
101.9 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4511, 2501, 3130
Auto
27.2 29%
Teleop
41.1 43%
Endgame
26.8 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 3691, 11223, 4741
41
/ 100 compatProjected
49 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 3691, 11223, 4741
Auto
11.9 23%
Teleop
20.7 40%
Endgame
19.5 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score101.9pts
Blue projected score49pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 23%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.8
- Score range
- 29–122
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
264.5Season APEX178.7
27.2Auto11.9
41.1Teleop20.7
26.8Endgame19.5
89Consistency93
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 14 |
| teleop | 29 | 56 |
| endgame | 33 | 29 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 108 | 99 |
Result
Final score
108 – 99
Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.