Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.28 – 100.65

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.9 ±18.8

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 1.56Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 21.95Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 22.77Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±15.6

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 14.76Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 35.82Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 50.07Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7864, 8516, 4656

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7864, 8516, 4656

Auto

13.3 28%

Teleop

9.7 21%

Endgame

24.0 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3294, 5690, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3294, 5690, 4674

Auto

15.9 15%

Teleop

64.4 62%

Endgame

24.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.3pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.4
Score range: 26–121
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.9Season APEX335.6

13.3Auto15.9

9.7Teleop64.4

24Endgame24.2

70Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	15	57
endgame	21	38
foul	5	0
total	61	114

Result

Final score

61 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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