Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.74 – 70.92

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±14.1

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 65.87Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 81.55Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 36.32Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±13.9

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 28.93Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 20.99Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 21Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7797, 5348, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7797, 5348, 2823

Auto

37.6 21%

Teleop

87.9 49%

Endgame

53.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4624, 7849, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 7849, 10490

Auto

16.1 26%

Teleop

25.1 40%

Endgame

21.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.7pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.8
Score range: 51–204
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.4Season APEX249.4

37.6Auto16.1

87.9Teleop25.1

53.2Endgame21.2

103Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	10
teleop	104	7
endgame	38	15
foul	15	0
total	207	32

Result

Final score

207 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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