Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.08 – 145.7

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421 ±13.1

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 45.06Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 22.67Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 46.35Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±12.8

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 78.25Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 29.59Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 37.86Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4674, 3630, 11223

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4674, 3630, 11223

Auto

26.7 24%

Teleop

55.2 49%

Endgame

29.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 2181, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 2181, 3926

Auto

30.3 22%

Teleop

72.8 54%

Endgame

32.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.1pts

Blue projected score145.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.6
Score range: 92–168
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421Season APEX342.3

26.7Auto30.3

55.2Teleop72.8

29.8Endgame32

102Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	14
teleop	74	49
endgame	29	37
foul	0	0
total	136	100

Result

Final score

136 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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