Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.13 – 63.74

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.8 ±13.3

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 73.25Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 8.36Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 43.52Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.9 ±15.6

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 46.23Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX -1.88Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 19.39Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4009, 8422, 4778

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 8422, 4778

Auto

18.2 15%

Teleop

74.7 60%

Endgame

31.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2846, 2526, 2501

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2846, 2526, 2501

Auto

18.6 32%

Teleop

30.4 52%

Endgame

9.2 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.1pts

Blue projected score63.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.4
Score range: 45–144
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.8Season APEX320.9

18.2Auto18.6

74.7Teleop30.4

31.1Endgame9.2

56Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	28
teleop	85	45
endgame	33	19
foul	0	10
total	146	102

Result

Final score

146 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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