Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.75 – 55.81

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.2 ±16.2

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 34.87Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 5.56Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 21.32Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±14.5

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 21.58Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 9.54Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 24.69Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 4741, 3294

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 4741, 3294

Auto

19.5 29%

Teleop

27.2 40%

Endgame

20.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8516, 4693, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 4693, 3926

Auto

14.7 28%

Teleop

24.3 46%

Endgame

14.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.8pts

Blue projected score55.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.9
Score range: 36–82
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 109.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.2Season APEX227.5

19.5Auto14.7

27.2Teleop24.3

20.9Endgame14.4

78Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	23
teleop	19	32
endgame	10	21
foul	5	0
total	46	76

Result

Final score

46 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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