Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.92 – 125.75

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.3 ±15.1

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 31.71Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 60.01Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 48.2Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.9 ±15.7

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 22.33Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 32.77Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 70.65Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4656, 2861, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4656, 2861, 3630

Auto

30.8 24%

Teleop

71.4 55%

Endgame

27.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 5658, 7797

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 5658, 7797

Auto

26.4 22%

Teleop

39.8 33%

Endgame

54.0 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.9pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 106–160
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.3Season APEX214.9

30.8Auto26.4

71.4Teleop39.8

27.9Endgame54

91Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	39
teleop	36	44
endgame	16	27
foul	0	5
total	63	115

Result

Final score

63 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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