Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.59 – 136.09

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.7 ±13.9

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 23.63Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 32Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 63.96Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520 ±11.7

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 56.95Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 32.77Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 46.37Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4624, 5690, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 5690, 3267

Auto

37.6 33%

Teleop

42.8 38%

Endgame

32.4 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 2823, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 2823, 4674

Auto

23.2 19%

Teleop

70.3 58%

Endgame

28.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.6pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 101–155
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.7Season APEX520

37.6Auto23.2

42.8Teleop70.3

32.4Endgame28.4

113Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	11
teleop	94	106
endgame	27	64
foul	10	0
total	168	181

Result

Final score

168 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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