Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.32 – 45.25

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.6 ±11.7

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 36.72Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 79.91Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 16.69Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.3 ±19.2

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 15.05Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 17.96Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 12.24Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6147, 5348, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 5348, 10490

Auto

20.6 17%

Teleop

74.8 61%

Endgame

28.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7864, 4536, 6044

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7864, 4536, 6044

Auto

12.0 29%

Teleop

4.1 10%

Endgame

24.7 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.3pts

Blue projected score45.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 25–153
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 108.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.6Season APEX155.3

20.6Auto12

74.8Teleop4.1

28.2Endgame24.7

106Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	10
teleop	90	7
endgame	39	4
foul	0	0
total	149	21

Result

Final score

149 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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