Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.11 – 67.3

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±14.5

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -1.06Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 30.79Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 73.38Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.8 ±13.9

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 46.34Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 0.3Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 20.66Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4166, 6217, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4166, 6217, 4009

Auto

22.4 22%

Teleop

47.2 47%

Endgame

31.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3130, 8422, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 8422, 2181

Auto

18.5 28%

Teleop

28.2 43%

Endgame

18.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.1pts

Blue projected score67.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 47–123
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 108.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.9Season APEX263.8

22.4Auto18.5

47.2Teleop28.2

31.6Endgame18.5

68Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	30
teleop	33	73
endgame	23	19
foul	0	0
total	77	122

Result

Final score

77 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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