Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.38 – 153.98

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±16.2

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 5.08Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 4.85Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 73.45Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506 ±11.6

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 33.6Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 65.68Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 54.7Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4693, 4741, 7797

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 4741, 7797

Auto

27.0 33%

Teleop

18.9 23%

Endgame

36.3 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4778, 2847, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 2847, 2861

Auto

11.8 8%

Teleop

95.3 67%

Endgame

35.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.4pts

Blue projected score154pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.6
Score range: 64–173
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.7Season APEX506

27Auto11.8

18.9Teleop95.3

36.3Endgame35.3

82Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	14
teleop	41	127
endgame	21	40
foul	5	20
total	95	201

Result

Final score

95 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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