Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.35 – 102.95

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421 ±12.8

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 137.41Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 55.48Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 16.46Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.3 ±13.9

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 38.54Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 8.52Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 55.89Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3100, 4009, 8516

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3100, 4009, 8516

Auto

34.9 17%

Teleop

100.4 50%

Endgame

67.2 33%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2823, 4511, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 4511, 2861

Auto

24.2 24%

Teleop

52.9 53%

Endgame

23.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score209.4pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.4
Score range: 81–231
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421Season APEX339.3

34.9Auto24.2

100.4Teleop52.9

67.2Endgame23.3

23Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	136	49
endgame	99	20
foul	0	5
total	251	94

Result

Final score

251 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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