Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.28 – 79.21

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.5 ±15

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 6.03Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 32.23Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 34.02Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.9 ±12.8

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 29.08Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 4.34Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 45.79Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3691, 5658, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3691, 5658, 2823

Auto

17.5 22%

Teleop

41.0 51%

Endgame

21.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3042, 3883, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3042, 3883, 4674

Auto

15.2 23%

Teleop

38.3 59%

Endgame

11.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 53–98
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.5Season APEX357.9

17.5Auto15.2

41Teleop38.3

21.2Endgame11.8

113Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	21
teleop	38	67
endgame	33	14
foul	0	0
total	92	102

Result

Final score

92 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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