Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.84 – 84.29

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.7 ±13.5

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 27.6Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 126.76Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 38.48Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.4 ±15.6

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 13.18Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 43.16Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 27.95Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4536, 3100, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4536, 3100, 4624

Auto

27.8 15%

Teleop

93.2 52%

Endgame

59.6 33%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 2846, 4656

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 2846, 4656

Auto

21.8 27%

Teleop

47.5 59%

Endgame

11.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.8pts

Blue projected score84.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.6
Score range: 65–212
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 108.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.7Season APEX323.4

27.8Auto21.8

93.2Teleop47.5

59.6Endgame11.6

160Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	37
teleop	54	60
endgame	18	23
foul	5	0
total	113	120

Result

Final score

113 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.