Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.99 – 89.65

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±12.8

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 65.01Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 53.41Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 19.57Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±16.7

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 33.61Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 19.18Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 36.86Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3267, 3297, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3267, 3297, 10490

Auto

25.0 21%

Teleop

61.1 51%

Endgame

34.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 6044, 11223

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 6044, 11223

Auto

13.9 16%

Teleop

59.4 67%

Endgame

15.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138pts

Blue projected score89.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.3
Score range: 71–157
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.8Season APEX266.8

25Auto13.9

61.1Teleop59.4

34.8Endgame15.1

104Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	22
teleop	34	36
endgame	45	24
foul	35	0
total	155	82

Result

Final score

155 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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