Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.53 – 103.88

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.2 ±15.1

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 57.51Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 16.45Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 29.57Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±13.5

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 16.04Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 39.5Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 48.34Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7797, 3926, 3130

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7797, 3926, 3130

Auto

32.2 34%

Teleop

20.7 22%

Endgame

41.6 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 4693, 2181, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 2181, 3082

Auto

18.2 18%

Teleop

41.6 42%

Endgame

39.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score103.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.3
Score range: 85–123
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.2Season APEX283.4

32.2Auto18.2

20.7Teleop41.6

41.6Endgame39.4

93Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	11
teleop	61	14
endgame	65	8
foul	15	0
total	187	33

Result

Final score

187 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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