Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.17 – 174.33

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±14.1

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 8.85Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 60.3Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 46.02Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.3 ±13.3

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 62.4Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 35.97Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 75.96Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4166, 4674, 5658

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4166, 4674, 5658

Auto

26.0 27%

Teleop

42.8 45%

Endgame

26.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2861, 3042, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 3042, 4009

Auto

13.7 9%

Teleop

84.2 53%

Endgame

59.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.2pts

Blue projected score174.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.2
Score range: 95–194
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.3Season APEX280.3

26Auto13.7

42.8Teleop84.2

26.2Endgame59.9

56Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	28
teleop	27	101
endgame	19	13
foul	0	0
total	60	142

Result

Final score

60 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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