Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.16 – 55.98

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.4 ±13.5

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 31.1Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 73.88Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 29.18Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.7 ±18.8

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 25.65Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 31.27Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX -0.94Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4536, 2847, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4536, 2847, 2823

Auto

19.0 15%

Teleop

73.9 59%

Endgame

33.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4656, 4624, 2501

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4656, 4624, 2501

Auto

18.3 44%

Teleop

18.4 45%

Endgame

4.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score56pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.2
Score range: 36–154
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.4Season APEX198.7

19Auto18.3

73.9Teleop18.4

33.3Endgame4.6

165Consistency198

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	18
teleop	58	42
endgame	20	21
foul	0	0
total	105	81

Result

Final score

105 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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