Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.88 – 152.15

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±13.9

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 32.54Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 12.54Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 19.8Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.3 ±14.1

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 33.39Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 116.5Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 2.26Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4778, 4741, 10490

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 4741, 10490

Auto

9.8 17%

Teleop

33.0 56%

Endgame

15.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11223, 3100, 7849

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11223, 3100, 7849

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

74.7 50%

Endgame

56.5 37%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.3
Score range: 46–171
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.6Season APEX352.3

9.8Auto19.5

33Teleop74.7

15.7Endgame56.5

160Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	21
teleop	27	114
endgame	22	53
foul	5	5
total	58	193

Result

Final score

58 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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