Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.84 – 135.99

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.7 ±12.8

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 1.65Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 21.12Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 71.07Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±14.5

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 43.32Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 77.52Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 15.15Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8422, 6147, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8422, 6147, 3267

Auto

26.3 28%

Teleop

47.3 51%

Endgame

19.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5690, 2503, 4511

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5690, 2503, 4511

Auto

26.3 19%

Teleop

84.1 59%

Endgame

31.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.8pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 75–155
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.7Season APEX342.2

26.3Auto26.3

47.3Teleop84.1

19.5Endgame31.2

104Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	31
teleop	51	53
endgame	28	40
foul	0	0
total	114	124

Result

Final score

114 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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