Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.36 – 100.22

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.8 ±12.8

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 26.98Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 32.74Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 33.64Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±15.6

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 27.29Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 54.17Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 18.76Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3883, 8516, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 8516, 2846

Auto

17.3 17%

Teleop

62.7 63%

Endgame

19.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6217, 5348, 7864

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6217, 5348, 7864

Auto

20.6 20%

Teleop

50.4 49%

Endgame

31.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.4pts

Blue projected score100.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 74–119
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.8Season APEX272.3

17.3Auto20.6

62.7Teleop50.4

19.2Endgame31.4

114Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	25
teleop	26	70
endgame	9	31
foul	5	0
total	66	126

Result

Final score

66 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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