Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.17 – 75.11

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.9 ±16.2

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.4Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 65.63Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 10.14Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±15.6

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 36.85Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 16.14Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 22.12Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3294, 3297, 3691

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3294, 3297, 3691

Auto

16.2 20%

Teleop

51.3 62%

Endgame

15.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 6044, 2526

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 6044, 2526

Auto

24.5 34%

Teleop

28.1 39%

Endgame

20.2 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.1
Score range: 55–107
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.9Season APEX280

16.2Auto24.5

51.3Teleop28.1

15.2Endgame20.2

91Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	33	21
endgame	6	7
foul	0	0
total	64	47

Result

Final score

64 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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