Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.38 – 81.65

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 1.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.5 ±15.1

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 54.99Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 40.69Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 32.7Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.2 ±17

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 47.32Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 1.29Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 33.04Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7797, 2181, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7797, 2181, 4624

Auto

15.8 12%

Teleop

50.7 39%

Endgame

64.7 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5658, 2501, 3042

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5658, 2501, 3042

Auto

10.4 13%

Teleop

45.2 58%

Endgame

22.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.4pts

Blue projected score81.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 62–148
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.5Season APEX171.2

15.8Auto10.4

50.7Teleop45.2

64.7Endgame22.5

168Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	15
teleop	32	31
endgame	41	19
foul	15	15
total	129	80

Result

Final score

129 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 1.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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