Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.68 – 73.77

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±15.1

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 20.3Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 58.47Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 33.91Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±14.1

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 35.05Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 14.23Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 24.49Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4656, 4674, 4778

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4656, 4674, 4778

Auto

20.3 17%

Teleop

80.0 68%

Endgame

17.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 3130, 11223

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 3130, 11223

Auto

22.4 32%

Teleop

22.4 32%

Endgame

24.5 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score73.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.9
Score range: 54–133
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368Season APEX330.5

20.3Auto22.4

80Teleop22.4

17Endgame24.5

179Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	34
teleop	49	64
endgame	27	31
foul	35	5
total	131	134

Result

Final score

131 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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