Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.06 – 40.19

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.4 ±14.5

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 16.55Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 67.58Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 14.93Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.5 ±13.3

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 6.38Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 47.44Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -13.63Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3926, 3267, 4511

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3926, 3267, 4511

Auto

29.2 31%

Teleop

29.3 31%

Endgame

35.2 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10490, 2861, 8422

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10490, 2861, 8422

Auto

2.8 8%

Teleop

21.9 64%

Endgame

9.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score40.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 20–119
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 109.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.4Season APEX231.5

29.2Auto2.8

29.3Teleop21.9

35.2Endgame9.4

122Consistency198

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	13
teleop	47	54
endgame	26	29
foul	0	15
total	121	111

Result

Final score

121 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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