Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.47 – 58.49

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.2 ±14.5

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 35.09Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 31.31Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 76.07Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.3 ±17

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 29.86Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 10.49Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 18.14Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4536, 6217, 2503

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4536, 6217, 2503

Auto

23.1 16%

Teleop

84.5 60%

Endgame

33.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2823, 4693, 7864

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 4693, 7864

Auto

8.2 15%

Teleop

24.5 45%

Endgame

21.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84
Score range: 38–162
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 109.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.2Season APEX203.3

23.1Auto8.2

84.5Teleop24.5

33.6Endgame21.8

173Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	28
teleop	78	24
endgame	39	22
foul	15	0
total	154	74

Result

Final score

154 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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