Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.78 – 155.05

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.2 ±11.7

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 34.27Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 29.4Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 56.11Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.5 ±12.4

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 89.22Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 43.47Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 22.36Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 8516, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 8516, 3297

Auto

21.3 18%

Teleop

75.9 64%

Endgame

22.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2847, 2846, 3691

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2847, 2846, 3691

Auto

20.4 13%

Teleop

83.5 52%

Endgame

56.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score155.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.3
Score range: 100–175
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.2Season APEX546.5

21.3Auto20.4

75.9Teleop83.5

22Endgame56.5

62Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	28
teleop	72	64
endgame	34	15
foul	5	0
total	147	107

Result

Final score

147 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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