Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.95 – 187.21

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±13.5

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 2Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 12.79Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 46.16Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±12.4

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 22.36Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 124.48Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 40.37Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4166, 2526, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4166, 2526, 5348

Auto

26.6 44%

Teleop

22.5 37%

Endgame

11.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4741, 3100, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4741, 3100, 6147

Auto

30.3 16%

Teleop

109.8 59%

Endgame

45.3 24%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score187.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.3
Score range: 41–207
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.5Season APEX405.3

26.6Auto30.3

22.5Teleop109.8

11.6Endgame45.3

14Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	21
teleop	40	62
endgame	3	44
foul	20	5
total	88	132

Result

Final score

88 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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