Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.94 – 35.33

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.5 ±15.6

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -9.13Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 52.62Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 9.45Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±17

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -0.07Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 7Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 28.4Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8422, 4674, 2501

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8422, 4674, 2501

Auto

7.0 15%

Teleop

41.7 90%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10490, 4511, 4656

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10490, 4511, 4656

Auto

11.9 31%

Teleop

19.3 50%

Endgame

7.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.9pts

Blue projected score35.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 15–73
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.5Season APEX240.7

7Auto11.9

41.7Teleop19.3

-2.2Endgame7.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	30	22
endgame	21	12
foul	0	5
total	65	62

Result

Final score

65 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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