Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.03 – 41.54

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 70.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±17.1

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 15.36Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX -3.69Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 13.36Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262 ±13.9

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 4.62Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 12.15Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 24.77Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11223, 7864, 4778

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11223, 7864, 4778

Auto

9.2 28%

Teleop

12.3 38%

Endgame

11.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3926, 3042, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3926, 3042, 2823

Auto

14.3 31%

Teleop

15.4 34%

Endgame

15.8 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25pts

Blue projected score41.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 5–62
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 112.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.3Season APEX262

9.2Auto14.3

12.3Teleop15.4

11Endgame15.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	18
teleop	56	46
endgame	32	21
foul	0	15
total	107	100

Result

Final score

107 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 70.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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