Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.25 – 118.89

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±11.7

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 28.63Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 25.88Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 28.74Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±15.6

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 8.18Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 84.36Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 26.35Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 6147, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 6147, 3883

Auto

20.8 23%

Teleop

42.1 46%

Endgame

28.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7864, 2847, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7864, 2847, 4624

Auto

21.4 18%

Teleop

64.8 56%

Endgame

29.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.3pts

Blue projected score118.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.6
Score range: 61–141
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.5Season APEX429.7

20.8Auto21.4

42.1Teleop64.8

28.8Endgame29.5

89Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	47	34
endgame	31	64
foul	0	5
total	96	118

Result

Final score

96 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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