Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.91 – 84.06

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±16

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 21.54Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 25.5Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX -7.13Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±12.8

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 24.25Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 21.85Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 37.96Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2861, 2181, 6044

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 2181, 6044

Auto

6.4 18%

Teleop

15.1 42%

Endgame

14.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6217, 3082, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6217, 3082, 5690

Auto

9.6 11%

Teleop

58.9 66%

Endgame

21.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.9pts

Blue projected score84.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.2
Score range: 20–104
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.8Season APEX288.5

6.4Auto9.6

15.1Teleop58.9

14.2Endgame21.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	29
teleop	82	69
endgame	54	34
foul	15	0
total	156	132

Result

Final score

156 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 82 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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