Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.27 – 51.62

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.4 ±13.5

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 46.28Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 29.81Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 38.18Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.7 ±15

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 5.92Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX -1.63Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 47.33Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2846, 4624, 5658

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2846, 4624, 5658

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

76.5 70%

Endgame

19.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3691, 4693, 2503

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3691, 4693, 2503

Auto

11.1 23%

Teleop

23.7 49%

Endgame

13.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.3pts

Blue projected score51.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 32–134
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.4Season APEX246.7

13.3Auto11.1

76.5Teleop23.7

19.9Endgame13.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	18
teleop	57	61
endgame	26	37
foul	0	0
total	122	116

Result

Final score

122 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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