Qualification · Qualification 17
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
150.92 – 124.53
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
207 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.7 ±14.1
Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 46.29Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 65.41Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 39.22Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±14.1
Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 34.23Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 53.57Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 36.73Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7797, 4009, 3297
81
/ 100 compatProjected
150.9 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 7797, 4009, 3297
Auto
12.1 8%
Teleop
93.7 63%
Endgame
43.1 29%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 4741, 5348, 4536
77
/ 100 compatProjected
124.5 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 4741, 5348, 4536
Auto
24.3 20%
Teleop
62.6 52%
Endgame
33.9 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score150.9pts
Blue projected score124.5pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 26.4
- Score range
- 106–170
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.7Season APEX286.2
12.1Auto24.3
93.7Teleop62.6
43.1Endgame33.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 39 | 26 |
| teleop | 69 | 70 |
| endgame | 84 | 19 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 207 | 115 |
Result
Final score
207 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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