Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.47 – 101.66

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.1 ±12.8

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 14.26Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 47.82Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 64.39Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.3 ±15.6

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 3.79Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX -3.85Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 101.72Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3130, 3267, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 3267, 2847

Auto

29.3 25%

Teleop

47.4 41%

Endgame

39.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3294, 2526, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3294, 2526, 3100

Auto

25.4 24%

Teleop

41.8 40%

Endgame

36.6 35%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.5pts

Blue projected score101.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.8
Score range: 84–144
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 100.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.1Season APEX349.3

29.3Auto25.4

47.4Teleop41.8

39.7Endgame36.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	28
teleop	91	98
endgame	56	66
foul	15	0
total	206	192

Result

Final score

206 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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