Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.19 – 136.15

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±12.8

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 40.84Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 18.52Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 22.83Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.1 ±13.5

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 47.72Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 24.69Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 63.74Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 3883, 7849

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3883, 7849

Auto

25.1 30%

Teleop

37.2 45%

Endgame

20.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 4166, 8516

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 4166, 8516

Auto

21.9 18%

Teleop

68.2 56%

Endgame

32.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.2pts

Blue projected score136.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54
Score range: 63–155
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 103.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.8Season APEX302.1

25.1Auto21.9

37.2Teleop68.2

20.2Endgame32.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	20	29
endgame	32	17
foul	0	0
total	65	61

Result

Final score

65 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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