Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.55 – 11.13

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±13.3

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 21.94Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 28.25Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 10.36Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±17

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX -14.27Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 28.25Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -2.85Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4778, 2823, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 2823, 2181

Auto

7.8 14%

Teleop

26.9 47%

Endgame

23.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6044, 4511, 8422

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6044, 4511, 8422

Auto

0.9 8%

Teleop

7.5 69%

Endgame

2.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.6pts

Blue projected score11.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.4
Score range: -8–80
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.8Season APEX214.2

7.8Auto0.9

26.9Teleop7.5

23Endgame2.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	69	10
endgame	23	0
foul	0	0
total	102	23

Result

Final score

102 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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