Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.54 – 131.69

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 17.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.2 ±13.5

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 74.84Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 39.2Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 27.5Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.5 ±12.4

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 74.84Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 38.86Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 17.99Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4009, 4536, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 4536, 3082

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

61.6 45%

Endgame

58.6 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3100, 3630, 4166

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3100, 3630, 4166

Auto

17.5 14%

Teleop

64.0 51%

Endgame

43.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.5pts

Blue projected score131.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 115–159
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.2Season APEX421.5

17.2Auto17.5

61.6Teleop64

58.6Endgame43.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	46
teleop	60	61
endgame	56	47
foul	0	5
total	133	159

Result

Final score

133 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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