Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.7 – 183.79

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±17.5

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 21.1Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 19.66Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 3.94Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.1 ±11.7

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 55.61Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 74.21Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 53.97Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2501, 4166, 4693

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2501, 4166, 4693

Auto

16.9 46%

Teleop

11.8 32%

Endgame

7.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2846, 3297, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2846, 3297, 5690

Auto

41.2 23%

Teleop

110.2 60%

Endgame

31.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.7pts

Blue projected score183.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.1
Score range: 23–206
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 121.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.6Season APEX511.1

16.9Auto41.2

11.8Teleop110.2

7.8Endgame31

128Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	14
teleop	3	101
endgame	1	13
foul	20	0
total	33	128

Result

Final score

33 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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