Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.27 – 184.41

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±12.4

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 16.26Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 139.1Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 79.91Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 75.43Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 23.7Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 85.28Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4741, 3100, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4741, 3100, 5348

Auto

46.1 21%

Teleop

121.8 55%

Endgame

52.1 24%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 3630, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3630, 2847

Auto

35.6 21%

Teleop

107.7 63%

Endgame

28.1 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score235.3pts

Blue projected score184.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.9
Score range: 162–257
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433Season APEX640.5

46.1Auto35.6

121.8Teleop107.7

52.1Endgame28.1

5Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	19
teleop	98	56
endgame	46	53
foul	5	20
total	186	148

Result

Final score

186 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

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