Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.5 – 186.2

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±12.4

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 17.95Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 140.88Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 81.67Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 24.2Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 76.26Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 85.74Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4741, 3100, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4741, 3100, 5348

Auto

44.5 19%

Teleop

129.1 56%

Endgame

55.5 24%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 3297, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3297, 2847

Auto

34.4 20%

Teleop

111.2 64%

Endgame

27.3 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.5pts

Blue projected score186.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.3
Score range: 164–263
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433Season APEX640.5

44.5Auto34.4

129.1Teleop111.2

55.5Endgame27.3

2Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	47
teleop	66	75
endgame	26	35
foul	45	10
total	195	167

Result

Final score

195 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Match videos

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