Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.42 – 186.94

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±12.4

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 21.34Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 144.65Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 85.43Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 24.12Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 77.11Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 85.71Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4741, 3100, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4741, 3100, 5348

Auto

42.5 17%

Teleop

144.1 58%

Endgame

59.9 24%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 3297, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3297, 2847

Auto

34.5 19%

Teleop

118.0 67%

Endgame

24.9 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.4pts

Blue projected score186.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.5
Score range: 165–273
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433Season APEX640.5

42.5Auto34.5

144.1Teleop118

59.9Endgame24.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	34
teleop	28	53
endgame	27	46
foul	55	45
total	168	178

Result

Final score

168 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 pts

Match videos

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