Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.17 – 71.84

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±11.6

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 53.09Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 46.64Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 13.44Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.3 ±15.1

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.08Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 32.9Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 10.86Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 8122, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 8122, 2239

Auto

24.3 23%

Teleop

50.7 48%

Endgame

31.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7041, 4181, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7041, 4181, 2129

Auto

25.0 38%

Teleop

24.2 37%

Endgame

16.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.2pts

Blue projected score71.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.3
Score range: 53–132
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313Season APEX226.3

24.3Auto25

50.7Teleop24.2

31.2Endgame16.7

15Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	78	8
endgame	27	2
foul	5	0
total	134	46

Result

Final score

134 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Match videos

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