Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.39 – 167.94

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±10.4

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 14.19Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 113.13Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 114.07Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±12.8

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 24.41Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 104.82Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 38.71Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 5913, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 5913, 2491

Auto

55.3 23%

Teleop

140.1 59%

Endgame

40.9 17%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5232, 6045, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 6045, 2855

Auto

22.5 14%

Teleop

96.5 59%

Endgame

45.0 27%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score241.4pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.4
Score range: 150–259
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 101.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.5Season APEX396.2

55.3Auto22.5

140.1Teleop96.5

40.9Endgame45

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	7
teleop	164	57
endgame	71	57
foul	5	10
total	263	131

Result

Final score

263 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Match videos

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