Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.89 – 90.5

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±16.2

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 40.97Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 24.4Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 20.52Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.9 ±13.9

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 37.1Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.99Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 15.41Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6758, 10711, 3212

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6758, 10711, 3212

Auto

21.6 26%

Teleop

40.4 49%

Endgame

21.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4687, 2177, 3610

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4687, 2177, 3610

Auto

18.2 19%

Teleop

49.9 53%

Endgame

26.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.9pts

Blue projected score90.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.6
Score range: 68–109
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 101.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.7Season APEX230.9

21.6Auto18.2

40.4Teleop49.9

21.1Endgame26.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	51	27
endgame	30	15
foul	0	0
total	101	67

Result

Final score

101 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.