Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.89 – 58.51

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±12.8

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 25.33Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 106.26Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 38.3Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.3 ±15.1

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 23.92Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 28.41Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 6.18Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5232, 6045, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 6045, 2855

Auto

20.2 12%

Teleop

101.4 61%

Endgame

43.4 26%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7041, 4181, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7041, 4181, 2129

Auto

25.3 46%

Teleop

16.7 31%

Endgame

12.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.9pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.4
Score range: 41–188
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.2Season APEX226.3

20.2Auto25.3

101.4Teleop16.7

43.4Endgame12.5

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	19
teleop	74	11
endgame	52	26
foul	0	20
total	156	76

Result

Final score

156 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Match videos

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